Nick Diaz out, Condit in against GSP

Krieger wrote:

Triggerman99 wrote:

Krieger wrote:

St Pierre has fought the premier welterweights in his division.

After Nick lost his job after losing 3 in a row to Sherk, RIGGS, and Sanchez he moved onto the smaller shows with competition he could handle. Most of his fights were against fighters with records hovering around .500 or a little too old and slow for a fair match up.

Put GSP against those same opponents you would see the same result or better than Nick was able to muster.

Put Nick against Shields... loss, against Koschuk.... loss, against Hardy... loss, against Alves... loss, against Penn, Fitch or Hughes... all losses. But Nick sure did well against a burnt out Cyborg, a 36 year old Sakurai, UFC cast offs like Smith, Shamrock, and guys who would never make the UFC.

GSP soundly defeats Shields, beats Koschek to a bloody pulp and puts him in the hospital and out for almost a year, beats Alves to tears for 5 rounds, beats Penn to a bloody pulp and puts him in the hospital, knees Serra till he pisses blood for a week, rips Hughes arm off in one of the sickest arm bars I have seen.....

Don't blame the player blame the game. If people want to see GSP beating up fighters and knocking them unconscious then give him the quality of fighter Nick has been facing.

....All superficial and no fact.

Anyone can say GSP "would" beat so-and-so and Diaz "wouldn't" beat so and so, but the fact of the matter is they have zero common opponents.
I'm not gonna sit here and say GSP couldn't beat the guys that Diaz beat, but it doesn't matter. Because Diaz didn't beat the guys that GSP beat.
So what does it prove? Nothing.

MMAMath is a fickle bitch. Everyone knows that. It's been proven time and time again that MMAMath doesn't prove a goddamn thing.

We all can agree that GSP probably has the abilty to stifle Diaz into a UD victory, but we don't know that for sure.
That's exactly why we want- fuck it- we need to eventually see this fight.

As a fan of MMA, I pray to god that this fight still has a chance to happen.



OK, you got my attention! Happy now?

Ok ... sure .... where do Las Vegas odds makers get their odds from? Do they pull them out their ass? GSP opens at -365 favorite over Condit... where do they get these numbers from? Obviously the numbers come from somewhere in fact otherwise you'd have a bunch of really poor bookies in Vegas. Sure sometimes they are wrong sometimes right. Odds are made through a mathematical formula that takes into account as many variables as they can to make a prediction that will allow gamblers to make a decision on their gamble that they feel comfortable with.

The average fight fan bases their choice on what they feel about their fighter. I believed GSP would have knocked Nick the fuck out.... I believe he will knock Condit the fuck out.... and I believe Penn will stuff Nicks head up his ass.

What were the odds on Serra vs GSP 1?

Like I said;
MMAMath is yadda-yadda-yadda.
That's all I'll say......for now.

"That's all I'll say......for now."

I'm calling BULL SHIT! There is no way that is all you will say... for now.

KK .... Odds makers are voodoo magicians... statistical anomalies are fact....

And Zach is betting that you will say more.....

I on the other hand..... WTF were we talking about?

uh....

TANK ABBOTT IS THE GREATEST FIGHTER OF ALL TIME AND COULD HAVE BEATEN NICK DIAZ IN A SECOND!

You'd be surprised how little formulation goes into setting odds for fights.
It's pretty much just a room of experts giving their best guess, and then they go live with it.

Then, they move the lines after the money starts to get laid down... or when key betters (that have good reputations) place their money.

Usually the opening lines have a lot of juice baked in to account for the anticipated early movement.

The sportsbook's goal is to have equal money (in terms of potential payout) placed on both ends, as then they make money regardless of the outcome (the juice).
The goal is for the opening line to be as close as possible to the closing line.

Uhhh....Yeah. Aside from that alien language that Stock was speaking, I gotta say that yes- GSP robably beats Diaz 9 out of 10 times. But it doesn't matter in MMA. How many times have we said that same thing about a fighter who was supposed to beat another fighter?

Oh man! I'm telling ya...(favorite) would beat (underdog) 9 times out of 10!


Maybe if GSP fought Diaz once, the 9 to 1 rule would work in his favor. But Serra (amongst many other others in their respective fights) proved that things don't always go as planned.


I meant to prove my point better than that, but I've a few too many Sam Adams' to do so.