Chrom
Hall of Famer
Posts : 5966
Standard Cash : 23050
Reputation : 257
Join date : 2011-07-06
Age : 43
Location : Minnesota
 |  Subject: UFC 139 Preview: The Main Card Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:55 am | |
|  - Quote :
- Mixed martial arts’ bountiful November marches steadily along, as UFC 139 “Shogun vs. Hendo” offers up plenty of intrigue on Saturday from the HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif.
Having captured the Strikeforce light heavyweight strap, Dan Henderson returns to the Octagon to battle Mauricio Rua in what figures to be an explosive bout with potential title implications. As former stalwarts of Pride Fighting Championships, Henderson and Rua know what it means to put on a crowd-pleasing performance.
The co-main event features a potential slugfest between Wanderlei Silva and Cung Le, while Urijah Faber must get past talented bantamweight Brian Bowles in order to set up a potential third showdown with current 135-pound champion Dominick Cruz. Without further adieu, the UFC 139 preview, with analysis and picks.
Light Heavyweights
Mauricio Rua (20-5, 4-3 UFC) vs. Dan Henderson (28-8, 3-2 UFC)
The Matchup: There has been some mystery surrounding Rua’s camp ever since the former light heavyweight champion’s manager announced he would be training in Sao Paulo, Brazil, instead of at Kings MMA, where he worked under the guidance of longtime Chute Boxe coach Rafael Cordeiro. The move to Brazil has paid dividends before, such as when Rua knocked out Chuck Liddell at UFC 97. Rua’s dominant victory in his rematch with Forrest Griffin at UFC 134 came on the heels of a camp with Cordeiro, however, so it will be interesting to see if the relocation has any tangible effect on his performance.
No matter what part of the globe he chooses to call home base, “Shogun” fans know that for the Pride veteran to be at his best, he must be healthy, motivated and in shape. Rua was clearly all of the above in dispatching Griffin, getting the best of an exchange with “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 1 winner in the center of the Octagon before sealing the deal with punches and hammerfists with Griffin on all fours.
Such a finish in the standup game will prove more difficult against the 41-year-old Henderson, who has one of the most durable chins in all of MMA. Henderson packs a serious wallop, as well, and the legend of his powerful right hand has only grown since he turned out Michael Bisping’s lights in his last UFC appearance.
After being outgrappled in his Strikeforce debut against Jake Shields, Henderson’s weapon of choice has spelled the end for three straight opponents: Renato Sobral, Rafael Cavalcante and Fedor Emelianenko. A former two-division title holder in Pride, Henderson has expressed little interest in returning to middleweight outside of a rematch with Anderson Silva, so his best path to UFC gold rests with his ability to connect with that right hand against a fellow accomplished knockout artist.
Rua has great power, technique and countering ability, and if he can lure Henderson into a prolonged exchange in the center of the cage, the advantage will be his. Should Shogun choose to rush forward in a nod to his Chute Boxe background, he must be wary that a counter from Henderson could end his night at a moment’s notice.
In terms of sheer volume, Henderson cannot win a standup war with the quick-handed Rua. He must be patient and pick his spots, using the threat of the knockout punch to set up takedowns and put Shogun on his back. The Greco-Roman specialist can do his best work from top position, raining down punches and wearing down Rua as the bout approaches the later rounds. Henderson will be susceptible to damage in tie-ups, as Rua is proficient at landing knees and punches from that position.
Conversely, Rua must utilize his outstanding kicks to limit the threat of a “Hendo” double-leg. Rua’s submission game is underrated, but he will need to put it to use if Henderson winds up inside of his guard. Henderson struggled against Shields, a noted jiu-jitsu specialist, but much of the difficulties came as a result of a difficult weight cut. That should not be an issue here.
The Rua that battled Lyoto Machida for five rounds before losing a controversial decision at UFC 104 needs to show up against Henderson. Though he is not nearly the puzzle that Machida is, Henderson has never been finished with strikes, and Rua’s only submission victory came in 2006 against Kevin Randleman. There is a good chance this fight makes it to the fourth and fifth frames, and at that point, Rua will need to summon a second wind and finish with a flurry.
The Pick: Henderson will have to weather an early barrage from Rua, and his history suggests that he can. As the fight wears on, Henderson asserts himself with wrestling and grinds out a late stoppage with punches or takes home a decision.
Middleweights
Wanderlei Silva (33-11-1, 3-6 UFC) vs. Cung Le (7-1, 0-0 UFC)
The Matchup: Some might say that Le was fortunate when Vitor Belfort withdrew from this bout and Silva stepped in to take his place, but even the current incarnation of “The Axe Murderer” represents as serious a challenge as the former Strikeforce champion has faced in his MMA career.
The 39-year-old San Shou master has been away from the game for nearly a year and a half, choosing to focus his energies on a film career. Extensive layoffs are nothing new for Le, who has competed just three times since 2008. Given his advanced age and relative inactivity, questions regarding his desire to fight are certainly relevant.
The same claims cannot be made regarding Silva, even though a brutal knockout loss to Chris Leben at UFC 132 -- his sixth defeat in eight appearances -- had some, including UFC President Dana White, hinting at the Brazilian’s impending retirement. Those close to Silva say the fire to compete still burns, and a match against Le represents a great opportunity to get back on track.
At his best, the former Pride standout comes on like a buzz saw, swarming his opponents with roundhouse strikes and ill intentions. At 35, with wear and tear that likely makes him feel years older, Silva’s knockout power is not what it used to be. Still, an aggressive approach would benefit Silva against Le, who favors a high-volume, accurate striking style.
Le possesses a plethora of kicks with which to keep Silva at bay and is adept at changing levels with his attack. It will benefit Le to stay on the outside as much as possible, creating distance to land attacks, like the spinning back kick that hurt Scott Smith at Strikeforce/M-1 Global “Fedor vs. Werdum.”
The X-factor could prove to be Lee’s hands, which generally are not nearly as dangerous as his feet. A solid jab like the one he displayed against Smith will be an asset.
Silva will want to fight at close range, where his dangerous hands will be effective and his muay Thai prowess can punish his foe in the clinch. Silva can make this happen by slowing Le’s movement with his still-dangerous leg kicks. How Le responds to a firefight in close quarters with Silva will speak volumes about his will to compete.
The Pick: The ground game figures to be an afterthought, as this bout will be a striker’s delight. It is hard to imagine the judges playing a role in the outcome given the histories of these two men in the cage. Le is flashy, but his conditioning has proven suspect in the past. Silva, with something to prove, brutalizes his opponent in the clinch and begins his farewell tour with a second-round technical knockout.
Bantamweights
Urijah Faber (25-5, 1-1 UFC) vs. Brian Bowles (10-1, 2-0 UFC)
The Matchup: Faber would like nothing better than to set up a third meeting with current bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, and it would not hurt the UFC’s feelings to put together a lucrative trilogy featuring the promotion’s most bankable 135-pound commodity, either. First there is the task at hand for “The California Kid,” which is getting past a game, if underappreciated, opponent in Bowles.
A former World Extreme Cagefighting champion, Bowles has flown under the radar because injuries have shelved him for extended periods of time. Still, his upset of Miguel Torres remains a crowning achievement, and, when healthy, the Georgia native is a dangerous offensive talent.
Broken hands against both Torres and Cruz have hindered Bowles’ progress, but he insists that brittle fists will not continue to be a problem. Bowles thought he suffered a similar injury in his most recent victory over Takeya Mizugaki, so it will be interesting to see if it alters his strategy while standing. At 100 percent, Bowles owns a stiff right hand and solid wrestling. He will need both to succeed against Faber, who, at 135 pounds, would appear to have the number of most everyone in the division but Cruz. Bowles needs to take good angles, using his quickness to move in and out while striking with the Team Alpha Male representative. Faber has competent standup, and he rocked Cruz with a couple of straight right hands, but it is no secret that fighting Bowles at close range would be his ultimate goal.
Bowles is a superior athlete to most of his opponents, but that will not be the case here. Faber’s quickness in forcing tie-ups and securing takedowns is without peer. In either of these positions, Faber should hold a distinct strength advantage. Bowles must use his wrestling to sprawl and keep the battle upright. On the ground, Faber forces his opponents to work constantly while in the guard. If Bowles does escape Faber’s overwhelming top game, the former WEC featherweight champion is also relentless when it comes to scrambles.
Winning a decision will be a tall order for Bowles; his best chance is to stun Faber with one of his lethal right hands and attack from there.
The Pick: Faber’s superior size and strength at bantamweight will ultimately win the day here. His striking is competent enough to allow him to get close to Bowles, and he will bully the Hardcore Gym representative against the cage and on the mat. Faber wins by unanimous decision.
source
| |
|
Calendar
